The seventh round of talks in Vienna to restore Iran’s 2015 international nuclear agreement ended on Dec. 17. But representatives from France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China, who are acting as mediators in the indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, say that while some progress has been made, they are not yet close to an agreement. These talks are the first since Iran’s new hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, took office in August.
After winning the 2020 election, President Biden made a return to the Iran nuclear deal, from which former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew in 2018, a top priority. Since Trump’s withdrawal, Tehran has increasingly defied the 2015 agreement’s restrictions, with its nuclear program’s enrichment of uranium now approaching weapons-grade levels.
As President Biden warns that his administration must prepare “other options” if diplomacy fails and Israel’s continuing threat of military action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, progress in the talks is ever more urgent. Between The Lines’ Scott Harris spoke with Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council. Here, he discusses his view of the negotiations, and the many obstacles that stand in the way of success.
JAMAL ABDI: This is the seventh round in this effort to restore the nuclear deal, which of course, as a candidate Biden, as well as nearly the entire Democratic field, committed that they would restore that deal. They would return the U.S. to its commitments if elected. And here we are almost a year into Biden’s term and the negotiations are not, I think, where anybody hoped they would be.
This seventh round is the first round that has taken place after Iran’s presidential elections. So now at the talks, we’re dealing with a completely new administration. These negotiators and a lot of the people in charge on the Iranian side were the same people who were kind of in the wilderness during the previous administration and vehemently opposed to the deal that the then-Rouhani administration struck with the Obama administration. And they were kind of the equivalent to the, you know, the Donald Trumps or the Republican Party over here trying to undermine that deal when the deal got signed, trying to prevent it from going forward, pledging that they were going to, you know, get rid of it.
Now they are back in charge. And I think the fact that they’ve come to these negotiations gave people a kind of a sigh of relief. Okay, these guys are, you know, at least committed to pursuing a process to return to the deal.
But there was a big question as to how would they approach these talks? Would they come and would they take kind of a pragmatic position? Would they build off of the work of the first six rounds that occurred since spring of this year under the previous Iranian administration?
Would they would be seeking the kind of close off that agreement and dot the i’s and cross the t’s and here we go? Or do they want to start from the beginning? Sounds like the talks concluded at the end of last week concluded on somewhat of a positive note.
The sides had at least agreed to the text that they would be working off of. So there are no sweeping divergences, but there still is more work to be done that I think at least the Western diplomats had hoped.
SCOTT HARRIS: Jamal, what are the concerns about Israel taking unilateral action and committing to a military attack?
JAMAL ABDI: I think the talks are going to continue into the new year and there’s going to continue to be progress. And I just think that the alternatives are so bad that the sides hopefully will get to get to an agreement.
However, I think the most likely challenge that we may face is an act of sabotage —again by the Israelis, an act of sabotage that does little to set back Iran’s program sort of tactically and does a lot to convince Iran to accelerate and further safeguard its program and to leave the negotiating table.
I think this is an act of political and diplomatic sabotage. I think under under the Netanyahu government, there was a much, much louder campaign, the kind of signal that the Israelis were going to take this action and I think that was used really to put pressure on the United States and other parties that they needed to take a tougher line with Iran.
Currently, you know, the Israelis have been doing visits to Washington. I think the national security adviser is traveling in Israel now.
I think the Biden team is trying to keep Israel in lockstep with the hope they don’t scuttle what’s happening.
It’s really interesting, you know, as disappointed I’ve been with how Biden has proceeded with these negotiations, he’s certainly has been better than his predecessor — than Donald Trump. And you know, I think some of what they’ve done is laudable, but I do think it’s been too slow. I think it’s been kind of politically very cautious the way they’ve proceeded. But they also have a very difficult task, which is that it’s not just the U.S. trying negotiate with Iran.
So they’re not just having to negotiate there, but they’re also having to negotiate with Israel playing the spoiler role. And then here in Washington, you know, the Republicans have already started with their the song and dance from 2014, when they were saying, Dear Iran, any deal you strike with the current president, we’re going to tear up as soon as we come back to the White House or if you take Congress back.
And so that’s a really weakens your negotiating position when you’re not able to say, you know, strike a deal with us and the Israelis will be at bay and there will not be sabotage. No. Instead, actually, you have Naftali Bennett saying we’re not going to be bound by any deal. And hinting that the sabotage, the assassinations, these other efforts will continue even under a deal.
And then you also have the Republicans saying, by the way, as soon as soon as we get the means to, we’re going to tear up this deal. And so for Biden, it’s a very weak hand that he’s been able to play without being able to offer any breath of relief from those vouchers.
For more information on the National Iranian American Council, visit niacouncil.org.
