As Russia’s war in Ukraine nears five months since the February invasion, there’s little sign of an end to the conflict. The Biden administration announced it will provide Ukraine with more sophisticated weaponry, including four additional high mobility artillery rocket systems as well as ammunition, spare parts and other equipment valued at $400 million. This, the 15th such aid package, brings U.S. total assistance since the start of the war to more than $7 billion.
During the early July meeting of the G-20 nations in Indonesia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declined a direct meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and instead accused Russia of triggering a global food crisis, demanding Moscow allow grain shipments out of war-battered Ukraine.
Lavrov responded by walking out of the summit early, denying that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was responsible for the global hunger crisis. He declared that “If the west doesn’t want talks to take place, but wishes for Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield – because both views have been expressed – then perhaps there is nothing to talk about with the West.” Between The Lines’ Scott Harris spoke with Melvin Goodman, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, and a former CIA analyst. Here he talks about the dangers of the escalating war in Ukraine and urgent need to work toward a diplomatic solution to end the conflict.
MEL GOODMAN: There’s a certain sameness about these days. The Russians continue to make incremental advances very small advances, but extremely costly for Ukraine, for its people, for its infrastructure, for its villages, its towns. The Russians are busy fast-tracking citizenship to Ukrainians living in eastern Ukraine in the Donetz, and they show no sign of backing down. And at the same time, Zelensky still feels he’s winning and can win the war.
And you have too many American officials who are at least agreeing with that publicly. I don’t know what they genuinely believe. I can’t believe they think that Ukraine can actually win this war and take back significant amounts of territory as well.
The nuclear background is something that’s always concerned me because the Soviets fought a war, a losing war in Afghanistan and never raised the issue of nuclear weapons. We fought losing wars in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and the idea of nuclear weapons never came up. Putin raises it as a threat from time to time. We seem to believe he wouldn’t do it, but who knows what Putin will do when his back is against the wall?
Given the fact that he’s already conducted the war with such brutality and senselessness that it’s hard to say what he’ll do. And unlike Khrushchev, who had to face a Politburo in the wake of the disastrous decision to put missiles in Cuba, Putin faces no possible counter, let alone opposition, and no one who’s probably arguing a different point of view.
And when you mention the G20 meeting, I just think it’s wrong for Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who doesn’t really impress me. In fact, you wonder, where has the State Department been during the Biden administration? What is the role of diplomacy? Are we still active in the diplomatic arena? He went out of his way to make it clear that he had nothing to say to Lavrov and there was no point in meeting with him.
You know, Lavrov is the foreign minister, but he’s not a power center in the in the Moscow arena. But he is a voice that probably could reach Putin on some level. And the lines of communication, I think, need to be kept open.
SCOTT HARRIS: There has been some concern expressed about how the Biden administration is fighting this war in Ukraine and what its goals are. And we had Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin say a couple of months ago that the Biden administration’s goal was to, Number One, degrade Russia’s military capacity and their economy. If that’s still in play now. What’s the danger of that goal if that is indeed what the priority is of this administration when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine?
MEL GOODMAN: Well, I still think there are a lot of people in the administration who believe that, and if they had their druthers, would say it. But Austin was called on the carpet for saying it. So I think what Austin was saying was sort of conventional wisdom within the military. Don’t allow Russia to come out of this war with the ability to fight another war in any area.
In other words, Russia would not even be in a position to defend itself. And Russia is a country that is surrounded by adversarial interests. This is part of Russian self-belief about their own history and their own national security situation. To me, we’re playing right into Russia’s beliefs about itself and the threat to national security that the United States represents by expanding NATO; by creating a military headquarters — meaning permanent forces now will be in Poland; by increasing the number of naval combatants in Rota, Spain; by increasing the squadrons of F-35s in England; Sweden and Finland coming into NATO.
Uh, how long is this Ukraine war going to last? What are the implications? Now, you mentioned food. We could add energy to that list because I’m seeing signs of war fatigue in Europe. And I certainly think we’re going to see more signs in the coming winter, as gas and oil deliveries get interrupted. And the German economy has some real problems with not fulfilling its energy needs.
So there’s more unwinding that can take place. None of it is good. None of it is healthy. And at the same time, we’re doing this, We’re going out of our way to antagonize both Russia and China. And now the Pentagon, in their military appropriations that they send up to the Hill, are talking about the need to fund a two-front war.
Do they really believe they can take on Russia and China at the same time?
For more information visit Mel Goodman’s website at melvingoodman.com and the Center for International Policy at internationalpolicy.org.
Listen to Scott Harris’ in-depth interview with Mel Goodman (16:07) and see more articles and opinion pieces in the Related Links section of this page.
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