After more than a year of indiscriminate bombing and a savage ground assault in Gaza that’s now killed more than 42,000 Palestinians mostly women and children, Israel reported on Oct. 16 that its forces had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, architect of the Oct. 7 terrorist attack that killed 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped 250 hostages. Responding to Sinwar’s death, President Biden said there’s now an opportunity for a hostage deal and an end to the war in Gaza.
But Israel is moving in a very different direction as its military launched a third offensive in Northern Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp, where more than 400 Palestinians have been killed and tens of thousands were displaced. At the same time, the IDF continues to bomb residential neighborhoods across Lebanon that it claims are “Hezbollah strongholds,” killing more than 2,500 as well as attacking United Nations’ peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, injuring 15 U.N. soldiers with white phosphorus munitions.
The U.S., which already has some 43,000 troops in the Middle East, recently sent an additional 100 soldiers to Israel to operate the advanced THAAD anti-missile system. The U.S. anti-missile batteries were deployed in anticipation of a possible Iranian response to an expected Israeli reprisal attack following Tehran’s Oct. 1 launch of 180 missiles in retaliation for recent Israeli assassinations of Iran allied leaders. Between The Lines’ Scott Harris spoke with Josh Ruebner, a lecturer at Georgetown University’s Justice and Peace Studies program, who examines the escalating violence across the Middle East and how the war could impact the US presidential election.
JOSH RUEBNER: I have a lot of major fears right now. It is a very dangerous and precarious time. The fact that you’ve had the U.S. Navy participate in hostilities with Israel to shoot down the incoming Iranian missiles and the fact that you now have 100 U.S. armed personnel deployed to Israel on another anti-missile system clearly indicate that the Biden administration is willing and able and ready and has already engaged in hostilities on Israel’s behalf.
So certainly, there’s a huge worry that should this escalate into a full-out war between Iran and Israel that the United States could get sucked into this fighting without Congress having authorized the use of military force. And without exaggeration, we’re facing the potential for the United States to be engaged in yet another “forever war” in the Middle East, this time explicitly fighting on Israel’s behalf.
So that’s one major concern I have. The other major concern I have right now pertains to the situation that faces the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who defied Israel’s orders to leave their homes in the northern part of the Gaza Strip and Israel very much seems to be implementing a campaign to try to starve them into leaving or to starve them into death.
Hardly any food shipments have been let in in recent weeks. All of the telecommunications to that portion of the Gaza Strip have been cut off. So we don’t even know the extent of the atrocities that are being committed by Israel right now in this area. And many analysts believe that what Israel is doing right now in the northern part of the Gaza Strip is implementing what’s called “The (Israeli) General’s Plan.”
And the “General’s Plan” seeks to drive all Palestinians from that part of the Gaza Strip in order to create a buffer zone between the population of the Gaza Strip and Israel, and possibly serve as a site for Israel’s re-colonization of the Gaza Strip. So it’s an extremely dangerous and precarious time. And, of course, all of this also feeds into the electoral cycle here in the United States.
SCOTT HARRIS: And Josh, I did want to ask you about the election. Michigan is one of those battleground states that is on a razor’s edge in terms of who might win it. And Michigan is certainly critical for Vice President Kamala Harris’ hopes to win the presidency. But, of course, as many of our listeners are well aware, Michigan has a very large population of Arab Americans and Muslim Americans who are horrified by the Biden administration’s policy in Gaza and towards Israel in general during this bloody conflict.
What do you think we can expect out of Michigan? And I guess this is not really just a horse race question. It’s also a question of Vice President Harris. And if she sent any even small signals to this critical demographic in Michigan, that if she is elected, she may choose her own policy toward Israel in the Middle East and not follow Biden’s unconditional support for Israel, no matter how much blood is spilled.
JOSH RUEBNER: This is very true that it’s affecting the political calculus of Arab Americans in Michigan and in other states as well. But it also goes far beyond that. The base of the Democratic party is outraged by what they see. They’re outraged at this policy and the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris is disregarding these sentiments is a huge strategic mistake. The organization I work for, the Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project commissioned a poll a few months ago that asked the question, “If the Democratic party candidate supports cutting off weapons to Israel, would you be more or less likely to vote for that candidate?”
And we polled voters in the three key swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. And we found in these three states for every vote that Vice President Harris would lose if she took this position of ending weapons to Israel, she would gain between five and seven votes for every one she loses. So we’ve been trying to make the case that not only is ending weapons to Israel, the moral thing to do, the legal thing to do according to U.S. law, but it’s also a winning electoral strategy.
It’s a winning electoral strategy that’s being neglected. And should Vice President Kamala Harris lose this election, it’s because she has refused doggedly to respond to these concerns of the base of the Democratic party, which go far beyond just Arab American voting constituencies.
Josh Ruebner is author of “Shattered Hopes: Obama’s Failure to Broker Israeli-Palestinian Peace.”
Listen to Scott Harris’ in-depth interview with Josh Ruebner (18:17) and see more articles and opinion pieces in the Related Links section of this page.
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