Not long after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned home after addressing a joint session of the U.S. Congress, Israel’s unpopular leader ordered multiple assassinations of opponents across the Middle East that derailed Gaza ceasefire talks and provoked calls for revenge. Israel’s claim of responsibility for the July 30 assassination of Hezbollah’s military chief in Beirut was followed the next day by a bomb attack in Iran’s capital, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, a key figure in Gaza ceasefire negotiations. Iran accused Israel of carrying out the attack that killed Haniyeh.
Both Iran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge and there’s growing concern that Israel’s targeted assassinations could engulf the Middle East in a dangerous and costly regional war. In response to the threats of retaliation against Israel, President Biden ordered the deployment of an additional fighter squadron and more warships to the Middle East. There’s wide speculation that Netanyahu’s strategy behind ordering these high level assassinations may be an attempt to draw the U.S. into a wider war against Iran. On Aug. 5, an Iranian-backed militia group fired rockets at a U.S. air base in Iraq, injuring seven U.S. military personnel.
Between The Lines’ Scott Harris spoke with Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Here he examines the motivation behind Israel’s recent assassinations and the looming threat of a wider war that could ensnare the U.S.
TRITA PARSI: Netanyahu wants to remain in power in Israel and if the war ends in Gaza, then his political career will end. His coalition will collapse. And because he’s under investigation for corruption charges, those corruption charges will kick in once he’s out of office and there’s a high likelihood that he will go to jail.
So in Israeli media, they are openly talking about how Netanyahu has sabotaged ceasefire talks in the past and that he’s constantly trying to make sure that this war continues and expands precisely because it’s serving his personal interests.
But beyond that, I think there’s other reasons as well. First of all, the election of (Masoud) Pezeshkian in Tehran created a small window of opportunity for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy. Netanyahu was opposed to talks between the U.S. and Iran. He was a very fierce opponent of the nuclear deal that President Obama negotiated and has in the past done everything he can to sabotage U.S.-Iran diplomacy by assassinating and truly humiliating the Iranians on the day of his inauguration.
A reasonable calculation is that his intent partly was to close the window of opportunity for U.S.-Iran diplomacy through this act. Moreover, this occurred just days after he had returned from Washington. And I think he noticed quite clearly that Kamala Harris was sending a very different public signal to him in regards to the conduct of his war in Gaza and the slaughter that is taking place there.
And in the press conference and they had in the private meeting, they had clear indications that she was much firmer with him than Biden ever had been. And he left realizing that the deference that Biden had shown him was now coming to an end. And that he would not be able to continue to drag the U.S. into various conflicts, but also constantly relying on the U.S. bailing him out internationally, politically and militarily.
But by escalating tensions now before the election, before Kamala Harris potentially becomes president, he may be creating a crisis that will deprive a future potential Harris presidency, of the type of maneuverability that she otherwise would have, the ability to take her own initiative. Instead, she will be cornered and she will be forced to react to the crisis that he has created and forced to get into this automatic “knee-jerk support Israel” mode that Biden has been in for the last ten months, if he manages to dramatically escalate tensions.
So all of these different things combined seem to have created this moment of opportunity for him to kill any potential U.S.-Iran diplomacy, prolong the war and stay in power and corner a potential Harris president to make sure that she will not be able to easily put pressure on him to end these wars and push him to pursue a different policy.
SCOTT HARRIS: Trita, I wanted to ask you about the U.S. response here. As President, Biden sends warships to the Middle East in response to Israel’s assassination and the threat of retaliation from both Hezbollah and Iran, what are the trigger points here for Netanyahu’s plan — if it is his plan — to provoke a response that will irrevocably involve the United States in a new conflict?
TRITA PARISI: So there are several different ways that the United States may get dragged into this war. First of all, the U.S. has already said that it’s going to protect Israel against any retaliation by Iran and Hezbollah. This is despite the fact that Biden had earlier told Netanyahu that the U.S. will not defend Israel again if it takes more provocative and offensive action.
Netanyahu nevertheless did this and Biden nevertheless covering and saying he’s going to protect them again, but apparently told him once more, “Don’t do this again.”
But every time he tells Netanyahu, “Don’t do this again,” Netanyahu defies Biden, and Biden nevertheless defends Netanyahu.
Now, if the Iranians retaliate and the retaliation is quite significant and Israel decides to escalate further and this ends up becoming a very heavy exchange of fire between the two sides, not only is there a risk that the U.S. will be dragged in because the heavy toll on the Israeli side may force the United States to start attacking Hezbollah, Houthi and other forces in the region on its own, which then definitely will trigger significant attacks by these groups against U.S. bases in the region.
But even short of that, there is a risk that U.S. troops will come under attack in the region. We still have about 50,000 troops across 17 bases in the region and these different Syrian and Iraqi militias have attacked these bases in the past. They have killed Americans there before. They want the United States to leave the region.
And if the United States plays a very decisive role protecting Israel and even perhaps participating in attacks together with Israel, then the U.S. will also become a target and that will drag the United States into the war.
Listen to Scott Harris’ in-depth interview with Trita Parsi (15:58) and see more articles and opinion pieces in the Related Links section of this page.
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