After nearly two weeks of U.S. air strikes on Iran and Iranian’s retaliatory attacks on U.S. military installations and America’s allies in the Persian Gulf region, the Trump administration and Iran have entered a temporary bilateral pause in bomb, missile and drone attacks. The Trump regime says its bombing campaign was suspended on July 24 to provide critical breathing room for regional diplomatic efforts. However, news reports maintain that a critical shortage of defensive and offensive U.S. munitions also figured into the suspension of Washington’s Iran attacks. The U.S. and Iran say no direct peace talks are occurring, but indirect negotiations are moving forward through regional mediators.
During the temporary pause in direct military hostilities, there’s an active U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue to disrupt Red Sea shipping by declaring a naval blockade against Saudi vessels and attacking oil tankers near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further disrupting global oil supplies. Iran reported that 60 people were killed and around 670 injured during 12 days of recent U.S. attacks in southern Iran. Four U.S. service members were killed following a series of retaliatory Iranian missile and drone strikes.
Between The Lines’ Scott Harris spoke with Matthew Hoh, a Iraq War combat veteran and Afghanistan State Department officer who resigned in protest over U.S. war policy in 2009. He now serves as a senior fellow with the Eisenhower Media Network. Here he talks about the cyclical pattern of Iran war military escalation, fragile temporary ceasefires, and collapsing diplomatic agreements.
MATTHEW HOH: I think this is going to be the pattern, Scott, for months to come. I think I was surprised by how long the two weeks of military action went. I thought the back and forth would be shorter than that, but I think this inability for the United States to win militarily, as well as the political realities that preclude the United States from accepting any type of surrender, puts the United States in a position where it’s stuck. And so the American president, Donald Trump, has gotten himself into a war that he cannot get himself out of, at least not in a definitive sense. And so I think that this back and forth, the negotiation starting, the negotiation stopping, the Strait of Hormuz open, the Strait of Hormuz closed, air strikes today, no air strikes tomorrow. I think that’s what it will look like for the next several months until at least after the American elections.
Now that is a rational assessment and we’re dealing with not rational people here, as well as we have a lot of complications and layers. That might make sense what I just said, if we’re just strictly talking about the Americans and the Iranians. But there’s all the Gulf Arab states, there’s Israel, of course. And then there are the wars in Yemen and Lebanon as well that complicate all of it. And that, despite how much the United States would like to see the wars in Yemen and Lebanon separated from the war in Iran, it doesn’t seem as if the actors in those wars have any interest in separating those wars from one another. So this is very complicated. I don’t see there being any negotiated solution or political resolution to this unless there is something unexpected. How is a resolution achieved? And that’s a real danger in all these wars, Scott, is that I don’t see resolutions here.
Another war as well, the Russia-Ukraine war. Where’s the resolution in that? How does that war end? How’s it possible for that war to end? And so this is really difficult. And so the idea that this being a world war, we saw a lot of commentaries in the last couple days use that phrase. Wall Street Journal had an article on it, other places did as well. The idea of not just being a world war, but a war that you cannot see a resolution towards.
SCOTT HARRIS: I did want to get your reaction to reports that the United States has been targeting civilian infrastructure like desalination water plants, a continuation of Donald Trump threatening war crimes by targeting power generation plants and bridges and other civilian infrastructure. Where do you think this is headed in terms of these just really grotesque threats to decimate Iranian civilization, as he said at least once or twice?
MATTHEW HOH: I think the fact that there is no resolution here, and again, you can apply this to say the Russia-Ukraine war as well. Because the wars are essentially stalemated, neither side can knock the other side out of the war, that you’re going to see more and more escalation that leads to more and more atrocity, more deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, more trying to hurt the other side’s population. And this way it becomes an escalation. And we’re seeing that in Russia, Ukraine. And there’s a very real possibility of seeing that in this war.
SCOTT HARRIS: Last question here. Pete Hegseth has been widely criticized for his management of the Pentagon. There are many levels of criticism. Among some of the criticisms are his firing or passing over black and Latino as well as women military officers for promotions. His latest diatribe relates to testing for testosterone levels among active duty service members. And I wonder if you’d speak to, I’m sure you’re in touch with folks in the military still who you’ve worked with. What is Pete Hegseth’s, his position and his conduct? What has it done to morale among our service members?
MATTHEW HOH: Well, for many service members, particularly people of color or women, it’s been incredibly demoralizing, essentially making it clear that the Secretary of Defense does not want you in the military. And unfortunately there’s an element within the military, just as are in our society, that agrees with them. And it’s not a majority in the military, even among white male soldiers, it’s not in the majority, but there is a pretty strong element that believes in what’s being done. And then what they’re doing here that’s so dangerous, Scott, is they’re recruiting along those lines in that they’re trying to ensure that those who are coming in are going to be white, straight. So these people in charge who are doing this, they have this vision. But in terms of for those who are in the military now, most of them, many of them, I’d say the majority of them are extremely demoralized by what’s occurring.
For more information, visit Matthew Hoh’s Substack page at matthewhoh.substack.com and Eisenhower Media Network at eisenhowermedianetwork.org.
Listen to Scott Harris’ in-depth interview with Matthew Hoh (17:56) and see more articles and opinion pieces in the related links section of this page. To subscribe to our podcasts, email newsletters, our Between The Lines Radio Newsmagazine Substack or social media, subscribe here.
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