It’s been nearly two years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, where both sides have suffered grievous losses. It’s estimated that up to 120,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and some 180,000 wounded. Ukraine is reported to have lost 70,000 soldiers, with another 100,000 to 120,000 injured. Since the start of the war, more than 10,000 civilians, including some 560 children, have been killed and over 18,500 have been injured.
As Republicans in Congress continue to block President Biden’s request for $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, Ukraine’s military announced their surrender of the key eastern city of Avdiivka to Russian forces on Feb. 17. The death of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison on Feb. 16 has further increased tensions between Washington and Moscow. There are also growing fears about a possible future accident at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, after the International Atomic Energy Agency reported their concern about military strikes, power cuts and understaffing at the plant, the largest in Europe.
Between The Lines’ Scott Harris spoke with Melvin Goodman, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, a professor of government at Johns Hopkins University, an author and a former CIA analyst. Here, he examines the grim situation in Ukraine and the need for the governments of Ukraine, the U.S. and Russia to enter into negotiations to end the war.
MEL GOODMAN: I don’t know where it’s going to go from here because I don’t think Ukraine — and I’ve been saying this for over a year now — Ukraine cannot win this war. It’s not Ukraine’s war to win.
And the problem is, Putin can’t afford to lose this war and he’ll throw as much manpower and as much weaponry and sacrifice as many soldiers as he needs to.
And even though we have very limited information in terms of Russian losses, we have no information really, officially. I haven’t been able to get any official numbers on what Ukrainian fatalities and casualties are in this confrontation.
But someone has to break this current Gordian knot over our arms or Ukraine is going is going to have to reconfigure its objectives in this war.
I just don’t think they can go on like this. They had three initial successes in the first year of the war when they turned back the Russians from Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkiv. But now with this Russian breakthrough that we’ve seen, Russia really controls the Donetsk province. So when you think of how much territory the Russians held before the war started two years ago, if anything, they’ve gained ground.
They hold about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. And I don’t see any possibility for Ukraine being able to regain any of that territory. They’ve had successes in the Black Sea and they’ve opened up some corridors in the Black Sea. They’ve hit some ships in the Black Sea that have threatened Crimea to a certain extent, but they’re not going to win back Crimea.
And Putin is certainly not going to give back Crimea. Remember, that was very popular when he seized it in 2014. Even Alexei Navalny and Mikhail Gorbachev, for that matter, were approving of what Putin had done.
But Putin is on a mad course at this particular time, and there appears to be no way of stopping him. You know, sanctions aren’t slowing him down as long as he can continue to have good economic relations with China and support and diplomatic cover at the U.N. and the expanded relations with Iran, and now even relying on North Korea for armament. He can continue these struggles.
So what was for a while, a war of attrition is now showing Russia making some very serious moves that are going to put the Ukrainian military in a real quandary. They spread their forces too thin in the first place. American military officers who have been communicating regularly with their Ukrainian counterparts were not in favor of Zelensky’s tactics.
And, of course, the dispute between Zelensky and his commander, who he finally removed, shows you how bad the political situation is.
SCOTT HARRIS: Thank you for that, Mel. There’s long been a concern by some that what’s playing out in Ukraine in this deadly war is a proxy conflict between the U.S. and Russia. And there are certain statements by the United States – the Biden administration – that indicated the United States was seeking all-out victory against Russia here and would fight to the last man in Ukraine.
Of course, that’s not the whole picture. But I wanted to get your take on when is it time to sit at the negotiating table and understand that Ukraine militarily will likely be unable to take back the territory they lost since this conflict began two years ago, and to reach some sort of settlement and stop the killing there?
MEL GOODMAN: Well, I’ve been in favor of that for nearly a year, when I assessed that Ukraine had no way to win this war. Ukraine is not only sacrificing its people, sacrificing its cities and its infrastructure. I think they’re compromising their democracy. It’s going to be very hard to conduct democratic reforms at a time they’re engaged in this military struggle.
So there’s a lot more they have to lose. The problem is, I don’t think any outsider can really deliver that message. But I think at some point we need to sit down with Ukrainians and also, you don’t hear anyone say this. At some point we’re going to have to sit down with the Russians, because I think what’s going to come out of this war at some point are security guarantees for both.
And I know that sounds ludicrous right now, but Russia is facing a situation when this war does end. Virtually every country on its western border being a member of NATO. This is a strategic disaster for Russia.
But it also creates problems for the United States in terms of a renewal of the Cold War that will make it very difficult to conduct the bilateral relations we need to conduct with Russia, particularly over arms control. And now this talk of this new satellite weapon that will be deployed in space that could threaten communications satellites not only of the United States, but of China and India as well, who are also dependent on satellite technology for sensitive communication.
I think all of this is going to have to be discussed and will be part of an overall settlement if we could ever get Ukraine to realize that this war has to end.
You know, we talk about ceasefire in the Middle East. We need a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front as well. It’s just as dire and in some ways in terms of a proliferated and expanded war, maybe more dire.
Listen to Scott Harris’ in-depth interview with Melvin Goodman (28:28) and see more articles and opinion pieces in the Related Links section of this page.
For the best listening experience and to never miss an episode, subscribe to Between The Lines on your favorite podcast app or platform: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, Tunein+ Alexa, Castbox, Overcast, Podfriend, iHeartRadio, Castro, Pocket Casts, RSS Feed.
Or subscribe to our Between The Lines and Counterpoint Weekly Summary.
